Judgemental Forecasting Method

Judgemental Forecasting Method Forecasting is a significant tool for many different sectors as it makes predictions on the future by looking at historical data, present data and the analysing of trends. However, some business forecasting is not done at a good level, as some business people confuse it with goals and planning. Forecasting, Goals and Planning, these three differ significantly, Forecasting is trying to calculate the future a specific as possible, by using historical data, present data and the analysing of trend, Goals for business is that the business would like to happen for them in the near future. Goals are usually done with lacking any planning or forecasting, as the business looks at their competitors and they either want to match them or exceed them in the market. Planning is looking at the forecasting and goals and deciding the best action that will make the business forecasting match their goals. As the business world is moving more into analysing data, forecasting is and will be a vital part of decision-making for the management team, as the forecasting can help with short term, medium term and long term forecasting. When a business has a lack of past data or the business is launching a new product, the business can still use forecasting, and they will use Judgement forecasting. Judgement forecasting is the use of opinion, intuitive judgment and subjective probability estimates. Judgment forecasting has few methods that can be used to get the best statistical analysis and there are Statistical surveys, Scenario building, Delphi methods, Technology forecasting and forecast by analogy. The Judgement forecasting has increasingly been recognised as a science, and over the years the quality of Judgement forecasting has been improving as the approach has been well structured and efficient. But it is important to understand that Judgement forecasting has not been perfected as it still has limitations. Judgment forecast depend on human cognition which has limitations, For example, a limited memory may render recent events more important than they actually are and may ignore momentous events from the more distant past; or a limited attention span may result in important information being missed, or a misunderstanding of causal relationships may lead to erroneous inference.1 This example shows that human memory can affect the judgment forecast in a negative way, and misunderstanding can lead to wishful thinking or optimistic view which can lead to faulty forecast, and in the case of launching a new product, the marketing and salesman teams will have an optimistic view for their lunch so they will not forecast its failure Beware of the enthusiasm of your marketing and sales colleagues2. In the case of judgment forecasting without any domain knowledge and only a set of time series data is used, getting a forecast will be very hard, as in the Hogath and makridais (1981) in their paper, where they have examined around 175 papers where there was judgment forecasting, they have approached a result of that quantitative models outperform judgmental forecasts3, in their research they have seen that judgment has been linked with systematic biases and errors, as some people were looking for patterns and linking together clues where there was none as the process was random. Judgment forecasting has been compared to many different kinds of forecasting such as statistical methods, and many different types of research conclude different findings of the accuracy of the two methods. In the paper of Lawrence (1985) and (1986) where the paper compares the accuracy of quantities model and judgment forecasting, the paper has come to a conclusion that demonstrated judgmental forecasting to be at least as accurate as statistical techniques4, also in the paper show that the standard deviation of the error of the statistical method was greater than the judgment forecast error. The paper also shows that if judgment forecasting was added in the statistical method, better sets of forecasting can be predicted and the level of error would decrease. In the study by Makridakis S and Winkler R (1983) it shows that there are few ways to combine the judgement and statistical forecasting. In the study it says that there is two way to join the two forecasting methods, the first is Concurrent Incorporation where to get the final forecasting both methods will have to be used to get the averaging procedure. The second way is a Posterior Incorporation which includes the judgmental revision of statistically derived forecasts5   this second way tries to improve forecasting by allowing the judgement forecasting to see and access the results of the statistical forecasting. After many years of research in the area of forecasting, Judgment forecasting improves when greater domain knowledge and more up to date information included, therefore by using this new information, judgment approach can then be adjusted and producing an improved forecast. By using a well structured and systematic approach, it helps to decrease the undesirable effects of the limitations of the forecast. By well structuring the approach it will make the forecasting task clear, and a good understanding of the structure is important to avoid unclear and uncertain terms. The method that is well structured that can be used for the judgment forecasting is the Delphi methods. The Delphi method is the use of experts opinions and judgment in the specific field to predict the expectation in that field. The Delphi method is respect method as it only looks at the opinions of the experts in their field and allows them to be anonymous at all time, therefore there is not influenced by their social and political pressure in their prediction, and all experts opinions are weighted equally so no one prediction is superior to another. But like any other approach, the Delphi method also has its limitations, the method is time-consuming, therefore, the experts might be discouraged to join the study or they will not contribute fully at all time of the approach. Adding domain knowledge to the judgement forecasting can be used fully for the prediction. The knowledge of the time series and further information which explains the historical performance of the series can have a minor influence on the forecast or a huge impact on the variable of the data. The domain knowledge represents the un-modelled module of the series. The un-modelled module is very important as it can be included into the statistical forecast to reach better results for the forecast. Many studies have been looking at judgement forecasting with the addition of domain knowledge, a study by Brown (1996) which looked at earning per share forecasting. The study shows that the forecasting of the management team was more accurate than the analysts predictions and the statistical model forecasting. In the study, it shows that the inside information which is the domain knowledge of the firm lead to the accuracy of the management team forecast. In the study, it showed that it did not matter if the statistical model was complex or simple as the management team and analysts got a higher accuracy level because of the domain knowledge the management team holds. In a study by Sanders (1992) where it compared the preference of judgement methods to statistical forecasting, the study compared both methods by the use of an artificial time series. The study looked at 38 business students, the students were thought some different ways of statistical and judgement forecasting and every student had two-time series and past data. The task for the students was to use all the information they had to forecast the next 12 steps ahead. The students were given one week to produce their judgement forecasting, then they were given statistical forecasting of the series, and then they were asked to review their forecast and do any adjustment if needed. The study has used the mean absolute percentage error to assess the forecasting results, and the mean percentage error was applied to calculate the level of bias in the forecast. The results of the study have similar results as the past studies did, as statistical methods outperformed judgment forecasting in all -time series but not the low noise step function. And the more complex the data pattern got the worse the judgement forecast became. The study clearly shows that the statistical methods had better forecasting in the high noise level data, and an increase in noise level has worsened off the judgement forecasting, the study says this is due because as the high noise increases it becomes harder for an individual to detect any kind of patterns. While judgement forecasting didnt perform well during a high noise, it did significantly well in the low noise function. Looking at the bias in the study, it shows that at a low noise series the judgement revision bias is low in the series, while for a high noise series it increases the bias in the series. The main point of the study by Sanders (1992) is that judgement amendments with statistical methods can have great advantage for a low noise series with a specific data patterns, and it will do better when statistical method are applied blindly to a time series, also at a low noise series the judgement revision bias is low in the series, but in a high noise series the judgment forecasting is not the right approach comparing to a statistical forecasting and in some instances the bias level in the judgement forecasting was greater than the statistical forecasting in a high noise series. Sanders approach of the judgement forecasting is not overwhelm approved in the forecasting filed, as it has many critics wondering about its efficiency, as the sanders approach for judgment forecasting does not use the experts opinions on the field that is going to be forecasted but uses the opinion and judgment of normal people who may have not have studied the field and have a small knowledge about it, therefore, there judgement would not be the best to use to create a prediction from it. Judgemental forecasting is an important tool in the business today but it has to be used right, as some business people confuse it with goals and planning. When doing a judgmental forecasting the aims and the purpose of the forecasting have to be clear and well structured to get better results. But like any forecasting method, Judgemental forecasting has its limitations and it is up to the person who is performing the forecast to make sure they are at a minimum. To get a better prediction it is important to try and increase the domain knowledge of the series as it has been shown in the Brown (1996) study, as the management team outperformed the statistical analysis due to the inside information of the firm and because they are the experts in that field. Also to improve the judgement forecasting as it has been shown in the Sanders (1992) have found if judgment forecasting is done with a revision of statistical methods, the forecast can be more accurate in a low noise series and with a less level of bias. Judgmental forecasting is not a perfect method to predict the outcome of a specific time series but it is a good point to start. References: Rob J Hyndman, (2013) Chapter: Judgmental Forecasts: Beware of limitations. Book: Forecasting: principles and practice R. Fildes and P. Goodwin (2007b). Good and bad judgment in forecasting: lessons from four companies. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 8, 5-10. Hogarth Makridakis, 1981 R.M. Hogarth, S. Makridakis Forecasting and planning: An evaluation Management Science, 27 (1981), pp. 115-138 Lawrence et al., 1986M. Lawrence, R. Edmundson, M. OConnor The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts, Management Science, 32 (1986), pp. 1521-1532 Makridakis S and Winkler R (1983) Averages of forecasts: Some empirical results. Mgmt Sci. 29, 987-996 Sanders, 1992  N.R. Sanders  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison   Omega, 20 (3) (1992), p. 353 Brown, 1996 L. Brown Analyst forecasting errors and their implications for security analysts: An alternative perspective Financial Analysts Journal, 52 (1) (1996), pp. 40-47 Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., OConnor, M., ÃÆ'-nkal, D. (2006). Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 493-518.

Night World : Black Dawn Chapter 15

Maggie shuffled behind Chamber-pot Emptier,heading back toward the castle. She was carryingpiles of folded linen sheets given to her by Laun dress, and she was doing her best to look like a slave. Laundress had smudged her face artisticallywith dirt to disguise her. She had also sifted ahandful of dust into Maggie's hair to dull the auburn into a lifeless brown, and when Maggie bowedher head over the sheets, the hair further obscuredher features. The only problem was that she wasconstantly afraid she was going to sneeze. â€Å"Those are the wild animals,† Chamber-pot Emptier whispered over her shoulder. She was a bigboned girl with gentle eyes that reminded Maggieof the calves tethered by Laundress's hut. It had taken Laundress a while to make her understandwhat they wanted of her, but now she seemed tofeel obligated to give Maggie a tour. â€Å"They're brought in from Outside,† she said. â€Å"And they're dangerous. Maggie looked sideways at the wicker cageswhere Sylvia and Gavin had walked earlier. Fromone a brown-gray wolf stared back at her with afrighteningly sad and steady gaze. In another a sleek black panther was pacing, and it snarled asthey went by. There was something curled up inthe back of a third that might have been a tigerit was big, and it had stripes. â€Å"Wow,† she said. â€Å"I wouldn't want to chase that.† Chamber-pot Emptier seemed pleased. â€Å"Andhere's the castle. It's called Black Dawn.† â€Å"It is?† Maggie said, distracted away from theanimals. â€Å"That's what my grandpa called it, anyway. Helived and died in the courtyard without ever goingin.† Chamber-pot Emptier thought a moment andadded, â€Å"The old people say that you used to be ableto see the sun in the sky-not just behind theclouds, you know. And when the sun came up inthe morning it shone on the castle. But maybethat's just a story.† Yeah, maybe it was just a story that you couldsee the sun in the sky, Maggie thought grimly.Every time she thought this place couldn't surpriseher anymore, she discovered she was wrong. But the castle itself was impressive †¦ awe inspiring. It was the only thing in view that wasn't dusty brown or pallid gray. Its walls were shinyand black, almost mirror-like in places, and Maggie didn't have to be told that it wasn't built of anyordinary human stone. How they had gotten it tothis valley was a mystery. Delos lives here, she thoughtasEmptier led herup a stone staircase, past the ground floor which was just cellars and storage rooms. In this beautiful, frightening, impressive place. Not only lives init, but commands it. It's all his. She got just a glimpse of the great hall, whereshe'd seen slaves setting a long table yesterday. Chamber-pot Emptier led her up another floor andinto a series of winding corridors that seemed to go on for miles. It was dim in this internal labyrinth. The windows were high and narrow and hardly let any ofthe pale daylight in. On the walls there were candles in brackets and flares in iron rings, but theyonly seemed to add wavering, confusing shadowsto the twilight. â€Å"His bedroom's up here,† Emptier murmured finally. Maggie followed her closely. She was justthinking that they had made it all the way withouteven being challenged, when a voice sounded from a side corridor. â€Å"Where are you going? Who's this?† It was a guard, Maggie saw, peering from underher hair. A real medieval guard, with, of all things,a lance. There was another one in the opposite cor ridor just like him. She was fascinated in the middle of her terror. But Chamber-pot Emptier of the not-so-quickwits reacted beautifully. She took time to curtsey, then she said slowly and stolidly, â€Å"It's Folder fromthe laundry, sir. Laundress sent her with the sheetsand I was told she could help me. There's morework because of the guests, you know.† â€Å"It's Chamber Maid's work to spread sheets,† theguard said irritably. Chamber-pot Emptier curtsied again and said just as slowly, â€Å"Yes, sir, but there's more work because of the guests, you see-â€Å" â€Å"Fine, fine,† the guard broke in impatiently. â€Å"Whydon't you go and do it, instead of talking about it?†He seemed to think that was funny, and he turned and elbowed the other guard in the ribs. Chamber-pot Emptier curtseyed a third time and walked on, not hurrying. Maggie tried to copy the curtsey, with her face buried in the sheets. There was another endless corridor, then a doorway, and then Emptier said, â€Å"We're here. Andthere's nobody.around.† Maggie lifted her face from the sheets. â€Å"You're absolutely wonderful, you know that? You deservean Academy Award.† â€Å"A what?† â€Å"Never mind. But you were great.† â€Å"I only told the truth,† the girl said placidly, butthere was a smile lurking in the depths of her gentle cowlike eyes. â€Å"There is more work when guestscome. We never had them before three years ago.† Maggie nodded. â€Å"I know. Look, I guess you'd better go now. And um-Emptier?† She couldn't bring herself to say the entire name. â€Å"I really hope you don't get in trouble because of this.† Chamber-pot Emptier nodded back, then went toreach under the bed and retrieve a ceramic container. She walked out again holding it carefully. Maggie looked around the room, which was verybig and very bare. It was somewhat better lit thanthe corridors, having several bowl-shaped oil lampson stands. The bed was the only real piece of furniture in it. It was huge, with a heavy wooden frameand carved bedposts. Piled on top of it were quiltsand what looked like fur coverlets, and hanging allaround it were linen curtains. I'm probably supposed to take all that stuff off and put the clean sheets on, Maggie thought. Shedidn't. The rest of the furniture seemed to be largechests made of exotic-looking wood, and a fewbenches and stools. Nothing that offered a hidingplace. But on one side there was a curtaineddoorway. Maggie went through it and found a small anteroom-the wardrobe Jeanne had mentioned. It wasmuch bigger than she'd expected, and seemed tobe more of a storeroom than a closet. Okay. So I'll just sit down. There were two stools beside a figure thatvaguely resembled a dressmaker's dummy. Maggie dropped her sheets on a chest and pulled one ofthe stools close to the doorway. Through the spacebetween the linen curtains she could see almost theentire bedchamber. Perfect, she thought. All I have to do is wait untilhe comes in alone. And then She stiffened. She could hear voices from somewhere beyond the vast bedroom. No, she couldhear a voice, a musical girlish voice. Oh, please, she thought. Not her.Don't let him come in with her. I'll have to jump out and hit herwith something; I won't be able to stop myself†¦ . But when two figures came in the room, she hadno desire to jump out. It was Sylvia, all right, but she wasn't with Delos.She was with Hunter Redfern. Maggie felt ice down her spine. Now, what werethese two doing in Delos's bedroom? Whatever itwas, if they caught her, she was dead meat. Sheheld herself absolutely still, but she couldn't tear herself away from the curtain. â€Å"He's out riding, and he won't be back for another half hour,† Sylvia was saying. She was wearing a dark holly-green gown and carrying a basket.†And I've sent all the servants away.† â€Å"Even so,† Hunter Redfern said. He gently movedthe heavy wooden door until it was almost shut.Not all the way, but enough to screen the bedchamber from anyone outside. â€Å"You really think he's spying on our rooms?† Sylvia turned in a swirl of skirts to look at the tallman. â€Å"He's brightmuch smarter than you give himcredit for. And these old castles have spy-holes and listening tubes built in; I remember. It's a stupidprince who doesn't make use of them.† He remembers, Maggie thought, for a moment too full of wonder to be scared. He remembers thedays when castles were built, he means. He's reallybeen alive that long. She studied the handsome face under the bloodred hair, the aristocratic cheekbones, the mobile mouth-and the quick flashing eyes. This was thesort of man who could fascinate people, she decided. Like Delos, there was a sort of leashed tension about him, a reserve of power and intelligence that made an ordinary person feel awed. He was a leader, a commander. And a hunter, Maggie thought. All these peopleare hunters, but he's the Hunter, the epitome ofwhat they are. His name says it all. But Sylvia was talking again. â€Å"What is it that he'snot supposed to know?† â€Å"I've had a message from Outside. Don't ask how,I have my ways.† â€Å"You have your little bats,† Sylvia said demurely.†I've seen them.† There was a pause, then Hunter said, â€Å"You'd better watch yourself, girl. That mouth's going to getyou in trouble.† Sylvia had her face turned away from him, butMaggie saw her swallow. â€Å"I'm sorry. I didn't knowit was a secret. But what's happened?† â€Å"The biggest news in your short life.† Hunter Redfern laughed once and added with apparentgood humor restored, â€Å"And maybe in mine. Thewitches have seceded from the Night World.† Maggie blinked. It sounded impressive the wayhe said itbut more impressive was the way Sylviafroze and then whirled breathlessly. â€Å"What?† â€Å"It's happened. They've been threatening for amonth, but most people didn't believe they'd reallydo it.† Sylvia put a hand to her middle, pressed flatagainst her stomach as if to hold something in.Then she sat on the fur-covered bed. â€Å"They've left the Council,† she said. She wasn'tlooking at Hunter Redfern. â€Å"They've left the Council and everything else.†Ã¢â‚¬ All of them?† Hunter Redfern's fine red eyebrows went up. â€Å"What did you expect? Oh, a few of the blackestpractitioners from Circle Midnight are arguing, butmost of them agree with the liberals in Circle Twilight. They want to save the humans. Avert thecoming darkness.† He said it exactly the way Maggie had heard lumberjacks say, â€Å"Save the spotted owls. Ha!† â€Å"So it's really beginning,† Sylvia murmured. Shewas still looking at the stone floor. â€Å"I mean, there'sno going back, now, is there? The Night World issplit forever.† â€Å"And the millennium is upon us,† Hunter said,almost cheerfully. He looked young and†¦personable, Maggie thought. Somebody you'd vote for. â€Å"Which brings me to the question,† he said smoothly, looking at Sylvia, â€Å"of when you're goingto find her.† What her? Maggie's stomach tightened. Sylvia's face was equally tight. She looked up and said levelly, â€Å"I told you I'd find her and I will.†Ã¢â‚¬ But when?You do understand how important this is?† â€Å"Of course I understand!† Sylvia flared up. Herchest was heaving. â€Å"That's why I was trying to sendher to you in the first place-â€Å" Hunter was talkingasif he didn't hear her. â€Å"If it gets out that Aradia, the Maiden of all the witches,is here in the valley-‘ Iliknow!† â€Å"And that you hadher and let her slip throughyour fingers-â€Å" â€Å"I was trying to bring her to you.I thought thatwas important,† Sylvia said. She was bristling and distraught. Which was exactly what Hunter wantedher to be, Maggie thought dazedly. He really knows how to play people. But the analysis was faraway, in the shallowestpart of her mind. Most of her consciousness wassimply stricken into paralyzed amazement. Aradia. The Maiden of all the witches. So it wasn't Arcadia at all, Maggie thought. She might have mentioned that,after I've been calling her Cady for days. But then she hasn't been conscious much, and when she was we had more urgent things to talk about. Aradia. Aradia. That's really pretty. The name had started an odd resonance in hermind, maybe bringing up some long-forgotten mythology lesson. Aradia was a goddess, she thought.Of†¦ um, sylvan glades or something. The woods.Like Diana. And what Maiden of all the witches was, she hadno idea, but it was obviously something important.And not evil, either. From what Hunter was saying, it was clear that witches weren't like other NightPeople. She was the maiden Bern and Gavin were talkingabout, Maggie realized. The one they were supposed to deliver. So Sylvia was bringing her toHunter Redfern. But Cady herself told me-I mean, Aradiatold me-that she was already coming tothis valley for a reason. Before she could even properly phrase the question, her mind had the answer. Delos. In a coincidence that lifted the hair on Maggie'sarms, Sylvia said, â€Å"She won't get to Delos.† â€Å"She'd better not,† Hunter said. â€Å"Maybe you don't realize how persuasive she can be. An ambassador from all the witches, coming to plead her case †¦ she just might sway him. He has a despicable softspot-a conscience, you might call it. And we know he's been in contact with the human girl who escaped with her. Who knows what messages the little vermin was carrying from her?† No messages, Maggie thought grimly. Not withthis vermin anyway. But I would have carried themif I'd known. â€Å"Gavin said Aradia was still unconscious fromthe truth potion-that she was practically dead,†Sylvia said. â€Å"I don t think she could have given any messages. I'd swear that Delos doesn't know she'sin the valley at all.† Hunter was still brooding. â€Å"The witches have oneWild Power on their side already.† â€Å"But they won't get another,† Sylvia said doggedly. â€Å"I've got people looking for her. All the nobles are on our side. They won't let her get toDelos.† â€Å"She should have been killed in the beginning,†Hunter mused. â€Å"But maybe youhave a soft spotfor herlike you do for that human boy.† Behind the linen curtains, Maggie stiffened. Like you do.Not like you did.And who else couldthe human boy be? She gritted her teeth, listening so hard she couldhear the blood in her ears, willing them to talkabout Miles. But Hunter was going on in his smooth voice,†Or maybe you still have some loyalty to thewitches.† Sylvia's pale face flushed. â€Å"I do not! I'm finishedwith them, and you know it! I may be a spellcaster, but I'm not a witch anymore.† â€Å"It's good to see you haven't forgotten whatthey've done to you,† Hunter said. â€Å"After all, youcould have been a Hearth-Woman, taken yourrightful place on the witch Council.† â€Å"Yes†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Like your grandmother and her mother beforeher. Theywere Harmans, and so was your father.What a pity the name isn't passed through the maleline. You ended up being just a Weald.† â€Å"I wasa Harman,† Sylvia said with muted ferocity. She was staring at the floor again, and sheseemed to be speaking to herself rather than toHunter. â€Å"I was. But I had to stand there and watch my cousins be accepted instead of me. I had towatch half humansbe accepted-be welcomed.They took my place-just because they were descended through the female line.† Hunter shook his head. â€Å"A very sad tradition.† Sylvia's breath came raggedly for another minuteor so, then she looked up slowly at the tall man in the center of the room, â€Å"You don't have to worryabout my loyalty,† she said quietly. â€Å"I want a placein the new order after the millennium. I'm through with the witches.† Hunter smiled. â€Å"I know it,† he said, lightly and approvingly, andthen he started pacing the room. He got what hewanted out of her, Maggie thought. Almost casually, he added, â€Å"Just be sure thatDelos's power is kept in check until everything's decided.† Sylvia bent and lifted the basket, which Maggiehad forgotten about. â€Å"The new binding spells will hold,† she said. â€Å"Ibrought special ingredients from one of the oldestMidnight witches. And he won't suspect anything.† â€Å"And nobody but you can take them off?† â€Å"Nobody but me,† Sylvia said firmly. â€Å"Not eventhe Crone of all the witches. Or the Maiden, forthat matter.† â€Å"Good girl,† Hunter said, and smiled again. â€Å"Ihave every confidence in you. After all, you havelamia blood in you to balance the witch taint.You're my own eighth-great-granddaughter.† Maggie wanted to punch him. She was confused and frightened and indignantand furious, all at once. As faras she could tell,Hunter Redfern seemed to be manipulating everybody. And Delos, Delos the prince and Wild Power,was just another of his puppets. I wonder what they plan to do if he won't join their new order? she thought bleakly. After a few minutes, Hunter turned in his pacingand walked by the door. He paused brieflyasiflistening, then glanced at Sylvia. â€Å"You don't know how happy it makes me just to think about it,† he said, in a voice that wasn't strained, or overly cheerful, or too loud, or anything that rang false. â€Å"To finally have a true heir.A male heir of my own line, and untainted by witchblood. I would never have married that witchMaeve Harman if I had known my son was still alive. And not only alive, but out having sons! Theonly true Redferns left in the world, you mightsay. Maggie, with her teeth set in her lower lip, didn'tneed to guess who was on the other side of thedoor. She watched tensely. And Delos came in, right on cue.

Computer Operating System

An operating system (OS) is like a facilitator, providing an environment for application programs to run in. It provides an interface between computer hardware and the user of the application programs. Application programs are a stored set of instructions for responding to a specific request. Hardware are the physical devices that make up the system such as the monitor, keyboard, printer, ect. The OS typically includes anywhere from tens to thousands of built-in subroutines called functions which applications can call to perform basic tasks such as displaying a string of text on the screen or inputting a character from the keyboard. The OS allows the user to interact with and obtain information from the hardware through a series of layers. The command layer is the only part of the OS that interacts with the user and sometimes is referred to as the shell. It is the user†s interface to the OS in that the user can request system services via a Job Control Language (JCL), which is the set of commands and their syntax requirements, or through a GUI (Graphical User Interface), the newest command language. The command interpreter decides which services must be executed to process the request and passes these to the service layer. The service layer accepts the commands and translates them into detailed instructions. There is one service call for each number of system requests provided by this layer. It handles functions in process control, file control, and device control. It makes requests to drivers for access to the kernel layer, which interacts directly with the hardware. Input must travel through these layers to reach the hardware and the results must travel back. First and foremost, an operating system must provide a mechanism for starting processes, which most of us know as programs. There are two main types of operating systems: single-tasking and multitasking. DOS is an example of a single-tasking operating system, which simply means that it can only run one program at a time. Windows95 (or newer editions, prior editions were a GUI interface to DOS) is the most widely used multitasking operating system on PC†s. Multitasking means that many programs can run at the same time. The processor (CPU), which selects and executes instructions, must divide its time to each active application to make it appear that all are running at once. These types of operating systems contain schedulers that divide the processor†s time among active processes. The schedulers are located in the kernel. Each process has one or several threads of execution. Every few milliseconds the scheduler takes control of the CPU from the thread it is currently executing, uses a complex time-allocation algorithm to decide which thread should execute next, and continues executing the thread at the point where it was last interrupted. The next fundamental duty of an operating system is to manage the memory – or storage of data – available to it and its applications. The goal in memory management is to give each application the memory it needs without infringing upon memory used by other applications. When a program is loaded and ran, the OS allocates a block of memory to hold the program†s code and data. If a program requires additional memory, it can call a function in the operating system to request more. DOS does not handle memory very well because it runs in real mode, where only 1MB of RAM (Random Access Memory) is addressable. The RAM is volatile memory that stores the running applications but the information is lost when the computer is turned off. Windows95 does a much better job of managing memory because it runs in protected mode, which allows it to use all memory, including extended memory. And even when that much memory isn†t enough, it can make more available by creating virtual memory from free space (space that has nothing stored in it) on a hard disk (non-removable secondary storage hardware device). Virtual Memory is a memory management technique that only loads active portions of a program into main memory. Windows95 also takes steps to prevent an application from accessing memory that it does not own. In DOS, and application can write to someone else†s memory, including the operating system†s, which can crash the entire system. Windows95 runs applications in private address spaces that are logically isolated from each other and identify the start of the file. One of an operating system†s most important components is its file system – the part responsible for managing files stored on hard disks and other mass-storage devices. An operating system provides high-level functions that applications can call to control file I/O, which covers the opening, closing, creating, deleting, and renaming of files. To read a chunk of data from a file, the application calls an operating system function and passes the operating system the file handle (which uniquely identifies an open file), the address in memory where the data should be copied, and the number of bytes to copy. The OS has to identify each sector on the disk that holds a portion of the requested file and program the drive controller to retrieve the information, sector by sector. It has to do this efficiently so that the information is retrieved quickly. The OS finds the right locations on the disk because it keeps a map that contains the name of each file and a record of where it is stored. DOS and Windows95 use a file allocation table as a map to find the locations. Another role that operating systems play in making a computer work is controlling device I/O. A device is a piece of hardware such as a video adapter, keyboard, or mouse. To talk to a device, a program must speak the device†s language, which usually consists of streams of 1†³s and 0†³s. There are thousands of different devices and â€Å"languages†, so the OS helps out by serving as an interpreter. It talks to the devices through device drivers, which are interface programs specially designed for each individual I/O device. Most operating systems like Windows95 come with dozens of different drivers for each I/O device. DOS also uses drivers, but they are often so primitive that the applications perform device I/O by relying on low-level routines encoded in ROM (Read Only Memory – allows the data to be read but not written) in the computer†s BIOS (Basic Input/Output System) or by talking directly to the hardware. Computer Operating System An operating system (OS) is like a facilitator, providing an environment for application programs to run in. It provides an interface between computer hardware and the user of the application programs. Application programs are a stored set of instructions for responding to a specific request. Hardware are the physical devices that make up the system such as the monitor, keyboard, printer, ect. The OS typically includes anywhere from tens to thousands of built-in subroutines called functions which applications can call to perform basic tasks such as displaying a string of text on the screen or inputting a character from the keyboard. The OS allows the user to interact with and obtain information from the hardware through a series of layers. The command layer is the only part of the OS that interacts with the user and sometimes is referred to as the shell. It is the user†s interface to the OS in that the user can request system services via a Job Control Language (JCL), which is the set of commands and their syntax requirements, or through a GUI (Graphical User Interface), the newest command language. The command interpreter decides which services must be executed to process the request and passes these to the service layer. The service layer accepts the commands and translates them into detailed instructions. There is one service call for each number of system requests provided by this layer. It handles functions in process control, file control, and device control. It makes requests to drivers for access to the kernel layer, which interacts directly with the hardware. Input must travel through these layers to reach the hardware and the results must travel back. First and foremost, an operating system must provide a mechanism for starting processes, which most of us know as programs. There are two main types of operating systems: single-tasking and multitasking. DOS is an example of a single-tasking operating system, which simply means that it can only run one program at a time. Windows95 (or newer editions, prior editions were a GUI interface to DOS) is the most widely used multitasking operating system on PC†s. Multitasking means that many programs can run at the same time. The processor (CPU), which selects and executes instructions, must divide its time to each active application to make it appear that all are running at once. These types of operating systems contain schedulers that divide the processor†s time among active processes. The schedulers are located in the kernel. Each process has one or several threads of execution. Every few milliseconds the scheduler takes control of the CPU from the thread it is currently executing, uses a complex time-allocation algorithm to decide which thread should execute next, and continues executing the thread at the point where it was last interrupted. The next fundamental duty of an operating system is to manage the memory – or storage of data – available to it and its applications. The goal in memory management is to give each application the memory it needs without infringing upon memory used by other applications. When a program is loaded and ran, the OS allocates a block of memory to hold the program†s code and data. If a program requires additional memory, it can call a function in the operating system to request more. DOS does not handle memory very well because it runs in real mode, where only 1MB of RAM (Random Access Memory) is addressable. The RAM is volatile memory that stores the running applications but the information is lost when the computer is turned off. Windows95 does a much better job of managing memory because it runs in protected mode, which allows it to use all memory, including extended memory. And even when that much memory isn†t enough, it can make more available by creating virtual memory from free space (space that has nothing stored in it) on a hard disk (non-removable secondary storage hardware device). Virtual Memory is a memory management technique that only loads active portions of a program into main memory. Windows95 also takes steps to prevent an application from accessing memory that it does not own. In DOS, and application can write to someone else†s memory, including the operating system†s, which can crash the entire system. Windows95 runs applications in private address spaces that are logically isolated from each other and identify the start of the file. One of an operating system†s most important components is its file system – the part responsible for managing files stored on hard disks and other mass-storage devices. An operating system provides high-level functions that applications can call to control file I/O, which covers the opening, closing, creating, deleting, and renaming of files. To read a chunk of data from a file, the application calls an operating system function and passes the operating system the file handle (which uniquely identifies an open file), the address in memory where the data should be copied, and the number of bytes to copy. The OS has to identify each sector on the disk that holds a portion of the requested file and program the drive controller to retrieve the information, sector by sector. It has to do this efficiently so that the information is retrieved quickly. The OS finds the right locations on the disk because it keeps a map that contains the name of each file and a record of where it is stored. DOS and Windows95 use a file allocation table as a map to find the locations. Another role that operating systems play in making a computer work is controlling device I/O. A device is a piece of hardware such as a video adapter, keyboard, or mouse. To talk to a device, a program must speak the device†s language, which usually consists of streams of 1†³s and 0†³s. There are thousands of different devices and â€Å"languages†, so the OS helps out by serving as an interpreter. It talks to the devices through device drivers, which are interface programs specially designed for each individual I/O device. Most operating systems like Windows95 come with dozens of different drivers for each I/O device. DOS also uses drivers, but they are often so primitive that the applications perform device I/O by relying on low-level routines encoded in ROM (Read Only Memory – allows the data to be read but not written) in the computer†s BIOS (Basic Input/Output System) or by talking directly to the hardware.

General Mills Inc. Where We Are Now Essay - 2804 Words

Introduction and Where We Are Now General Mills, Inc (GMI). produces and markets branded consumer foods globally. They also supply branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial banking industries. It offers ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated yogurt, ready-to-serve soups, dry dinners, shelf stable and frozen vegetables, refrigerated and frozen dough products, dessert and baking mixes, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, grains, and fruit and savory snacks; a range of organic products, including soups, granola bars, and cereals; and ice cream and frozen desserts, and grain snacks. According to General Mills Inc. the company retails its products through direct sales personnel, as well as through broker, distribution to†¦show more content†¦The Mission statement of GMI is â€Å"Nourishing lives† (www.generalmills.com). HRD is responsible for developing and implementing strategies and programs that will help the company support an increasingly innovative, flexible, and diverse organizati on. It is through the strategic planning of Human Resources that General Mills has a competitive advantage. The mission for statement for the HRD department to strive by would be â€Å"nourishing people†. Everyone from the top level to the housekeeper, General Mills is dedicated to taking care of people. For the HRD to be valued by top executive and its employees, HRD must provide an effective administration of the personnel function but, just as important, they must become a partner in enhancing strategy execution, generating commitment and productivity from employees, creating solutions to human resource problems that prevents the company from reaching its full potential, and ensuring the organization’s capacity for change. General Mills International (GMI) has a mission to nourish lives, by making them healthier, easier and richer, that the company’s mission. This is backed by their strong cord values in everything they do. This includes doing the right thingShow MoreRelatedNucor Corporation Issues1598 Words   |  7 PagesNucor Corporation is made up of 11,500 teammates whose goal is to Take Care of Our Customers. We are accomplishing this by being the safest, highest quality, lowest cost, most productive and most profitable steel and steel products company in the world. We are committed to doing this while being cultural and environmental stewards in our communities where we live and work. We are succeeding by working together. Nucor s History Nucor Corporation is the largest steel producer in the UnitedRead MoreGeneral Mills and Yoplait Analysis3473 Words   |  14 PagesProposal In 1860, General Mills entered the market as a flour producer that revolutionized the industry by producing flour that had superior baking properties. Great customer satisfaction coupled with their ability to maintain quality enabled them to develop other products that were not considered agricultural commodities. By the 1960s, they were marketing beloved childrens products that included Play-Doh, Easy Bake Ovens, Spirograph, Monopoly and Nerf balls (General Mills, website). The popularityRead MoreAn Interview With An Entreprenuer Essay1671 Words   |  7 PagesTell us a little about yourself. What is your background? A: I was an English major in college. I started my career in marketing at General Mills and was lucky enough to have them pay for me to go to Harvard Business School. When I returned, the entrepreneurial bug hit me, so I moved to their new products group. I enjoyed producing new products for General Mills, but really wanted to start a business of my own. After I wrote My Very Own Name during my maternity leave, I didnt know whether theRead MoreBusiness Strategy Report for Quaker Oats Essay1306 Words   |  6 Pageswill discuss a business strategy report for Quaker Oats Inc. Business Strategy Report for Quaker Oats The Quaker Oats Company was officially formed in 1901 when several American pioneers in oat milling came together to incorporate the company. In Ravenna, Ohio, Henry D. Seymour and William Heston established the Quaker Mill Company and registered the now famous trademark. The Quaker Oats Company is based in Chicago, Illinois and is now a division of PepsiCo. As indicated in figure 1, QuakersRead MoreQuaker Oats1293 Words   |  6 Pageswill discuss a business strategy report for Quaker Oats Inc. Business Strategy Report for Quaker Oats The Quaker Oats Company was officially formed in 1901 when several American pioneers in oat milling came together to incorporate the company. In Ravenna, Ohio, Henry D. Seymour and William Heston established the Quaker Mill Company and registered the now famous trademark. The Quaker Oats Company is based in Chicago, Illinois and is now a division of PepsiCo. As indicated in figure 1, QuakersRead MoreAmerican Regional Cuisine : Chef Reboli997 Words   |  4 Pagesaround a few different areas in Tennessee and highlight the cuisine they are known for. As a means to the end we will look at a little history of the state, food items it is exports, climate and geography and it wouldn’t be right not to talk about a â€Å"popular† chef in the area and finally we will tie it all in a neat bow with a few recipes popular with Tennesseans. Like Southern food in general, traditional Tennessee food developed from a fusion of European, Native American, and African traditions. TheRead MoreAnalysis of Kraft Foods Inc.4016 Words   |  17 PagesAnalysis of Kraft Foods Inc. Executive Summary The following report is an evaluation of Kraft Foods Inc. from both an internal and external perspective using fundamental and technical analysis. Kraft Foods Inc. is a worldwide food company operating within the Packaged Foods industry. With annual revenues in excess of $49 billion they are the second largest firm in the industry, controlling 8% of the total market. Fundamental analysis reveals that Kraft is a healthy company with growing revenuesRead MoreReaction Paper on: Is Management Really an Essential Ingredient for Success?1215 Words   |  5 Pagesbusiness management that we follow today. But, is it really so? Does good management really do the wonders that it promises? Is it something that we have really experienced or much of it is traditional exaggeration? Is it a fact or fiction? Objectives: The main objective of the case study is to provide a suitable answer for the questions discussed above. By the end of the reaction paper it has to be established whether, management is important for organizational success or not. We will also try to analyzeRead MorePorters 5 on Kraft Foods1703 Words   |  7 PagesCorporation. By 1976, company would change its name to Kraft Inc, and in 1979 the company merged with Dart Industries to become Dart amp; Kraft. This new company would eventually spin off its nonfood divisions with the remaining food entity known as Kraft Inc yet again. Phillip Morris Companies bought Kraft in 1988 for $12.9 billion and merged it with General Foods in 1985 and Nabisco in 2000. Kraft was spun off by Altria Group in 2001 and is now a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. KraftRead More Western Influence on Japan Essay1073 Words   |  5 PagesWestern Influence on Japan Japan, as a nation, is a continually changing society. Ever since western nations became involved with Japan, its changes over recent times have increased at a substantial rate. Japan now faces cultural, economical and social differences as a result of the western involvement. The involvement was initiated by the Japanese themselves, beginning during the Meiji Period1 through current times. As time increases, Japan is slowly becoming more westernized