Risks Associated with Choosing a Superannuation Fund of financial

Question: What Is The Risks Associated With Choosing A Superannuation Fund? Answer: Introducation: Superannuation and encouraging people to consider saving and investing especially for their future after retirement have been a major focus of emphasis in Australia particularly in the past two or so decades(Bodie, Shoven, Wise, 1988). Superannuation refers to organizational pension schemes that are created within a company for the maximum benefit of the employees. Taking the lead in this has been the Australian government that has taken a pro-active approach to the issue and directed that minimum contributions should be made to demonstrate compliance to superannuation or retirement funds on behalf of the employees by their respective employers. This figure stood at 3.6% of the employees salary when it was introduced but it was later amended to 9% in 2005(Bodie, Shoven, Wise, 1988). The employees themselves were also required to allocate a share of their income to superannuation investment. It was hoped that by introducing these measures, the burden will be lifted from the social s ecurity system that provides retirement or pension payments to support retired individuals for the rest of their lives after retirement. The mandated requirements on superannuation and increased awareness by individuals on the significance of saving have resulted in billions of dollars worth of contributions going into superannuation funds and institutions of finance each year(Brown, Gallery, Gallery, 2002). The financial institutions and the superannuation funds in turn participate in profitable investment of these contributions and provide adequate income to finance the lives of the individuals after they retire. It is therefore, no surprise that superannuation and mutual funds are considered as one of the biggest investors in the financial markets in Australia especially in equity securities in both locally listed and internationally listed companies in the share markets(Bodie, Shoven, Wise, 1988). There are varied employer pension programs in terms of design and can be classified as define contribution and defined benefit programs. The defined contribution program allows an employee to have an account into which their employer will deposit regular contributions(Bodie, Shoven, Wise, 1988). If the account is a contributory account, the employee also makes regular contributions. The level of benefits that the employee will receive depend on the total contributions and earnings from investments that will have accumulated in the account. In this plan, the employee has a considerable say in the type of investment assets that the accumulation can be derived from and can also determine the value of investment at any time suitable to them. The defined contribution plan are thus tax-deferred and fully funded savings accounts in trust for an employee. These plans are effectively not open to government regulators(Bodie, Shoven, Wise, 1988). A defined benefit plan on the other hand, a formula is used to determine an employees pension benefit. The formula takes into account the years of service to an employer, their wages, and salaries(Dulebohn, Murray, Sun, 2000). Several of the defined benefits programs in existence today take into account the benefits of social security entitled to the employee. Both the defined benefit and defined contribution plans have characteristic features that set them apart from each other with regard to the risks that apply to the employee and the employers, the impact of inflation to the benefit, the flexibility of funding, and significance of governmental supervision(Dulebohn, Murray, Sun, 2000). In recent times, there has been a steady shift from defined benefit pension plans to accumulation plans in Australia(Princen, 2013). More than half of this change is attributable to the changes in employment arrangements from large unionized manufacturing firms to smaller firms that are not unionized in the service industries that provide accumulation plans. This shift is attributed to an increase in the administrative and regulatory costs that have made defined benefit plans more expensive to employers due to the heightened regulatory scrutiny(Dulebohn, Murray, Sun, 2000). High labour mobility also made the prospect of defined benefits programs less attractive to employees. Superannuation in Australia has grown to about 90% since its inception but the majority of funds that are being established are accumulation funds and not defined benefit plans(Dulebohn, Murray, Sun, 2000). Fewer employers are offering their staff superannuation based on defined benefit programs. Consequently, the number of defined benefit plans has reduced significantly or are simply not available to new employees in the organizations and instead these individuals are advised to enroll to accumulation plans. In an accumulation plan, an employer pays an agreed amount, usually a percentage of the employees current salary to the superannuation fund(Brown, Gallery, Gallery, 2002). The employers obligation to the employee is fully discharged once their contribution has been deposited into the superannuation fund. The employees benefit from that moment on depend on the accumulation of their contribution to the plan including their earnings. This is different from the defined benefit pac kage where an actuary regularly reviews the rate of contribution and the extent to which assets contained in the superannuation fund are sufficient to cover obligation of paying benefits(Brown, Gallery, Gallery, 2002). If the actuary determines that the assets are inadequate to do so, the employer is under obligation to make additional contributions to the fund to cover the deficit(Brealey Meyers, 2010). In a defined benefit program, the employer covers the risk that the plan will cost more than the expected amount alongside the risk that the investment plan will generate less returns as compared to the expected(Chew, 2008). This stems from the increased administrative and investment costs that are incurred in management of the fund. For this reason, most employers underwrite the plan. On the other hand, in the investment choice plan, the employer is not obligated to the plan after making their periodic contribution to it. Thus, the employees or members of the fund bear the actuarial and investment risk associated with the fund particularly with its administration or management(Dulebohn, Murray, Sun, 2000). The members in this arrangement have a range of investments to choose from and these investments expose them to varying degrees of risk(Dunphy, Benn, Griffiths, 2014). The merits of a DBP and an ICP plan are balanced. Looking at future expected returns, both plans offer similar expectations in common circumstances thus it cannot be said that one plan is the better option of the two. In terms of benefits, the differences arise due to factors such as the age of the member, years of membership and future increments of their salary. Differences between the two plans in terms of the benefits that are ultimately payable arise from individual factors such as the members age, years of SSAU membership and future salary increases. Stevens assessment suggests that there was no bias at the time of the offer in respect of the two types of benefits that might have induced members to select one plan over the other. Risks Associated with Choosing a Superannuation Fund To achieve the objective of maximizing an individuals retirement benefits relies heavily on making an informed choice. An individuals unwillingness or inability to be informed and the costs involved in acquiring information play a significant role in making a choice, often an informed one(Dunphy, Benn, Griffiths, 2014). Evidently being informed includes taking time to acquire, review, and interpret the reports and other investment material. It also includes attending training sessions, consulting professionals on financial matters among other forms of information. Making the wrong decision can be costly. When the costs significantly exceed the perceived benefits of the choice, then a person can avoid the program altogether(Bolton, 2015). The risk transfer costs is a factor that needs to be considered irrespective of the amount or intensity of education an individual can receive. These costs include the costs of becoming informed as aforementioned such as the time invested into the exercise, or consultation with a financial expert, and never-ending process of monitoring the ICP option(Dulebohn, Murray, Sun, 2000). These factors have made many individuals to remain in the defined benefits program and not switch to the investment choice plan. The manner in which the benefits under each plan are determined is another area to consider before making the switch. Under the DBP, the employees benefit in the plan is linked to their period of employment and the final salary they receive before retirement. An Investment Choice Plan is similar to a savings account in a bank in that ultimate benefit is a sum of the accumulated contributions and the net investment earnings from the point that the periodic contributions are made(Quiry, Fur, Salvi, Dallocchio, Vernimmen, 2011). Thus, the different ways in which value is determined should be a concern to the tertiary employee. For example, a DBP is based on a formula and accrues over a long period hence; it is not possible to establish their exact value at any point in future(Bodie, Shoven, Wise, 1988). ICP benefits, in contrast, can be determined from the cumulated contributions and earnings from an established point(Bodie, Shoven, Wise, 1988). The characteristics of work and the risks brought about by the employee are also noteworthy in this case. This is because these risks contribute to the differences in the expected value of the benefits derived from both plans(Princen, 2013). Characteristics of work are inclusive of the initial age of employment, years of service, level of salary during the period of employment and retirement, and the longevity after retirement(Dulebohn, Murray, Sun, 2000). The most significant of these risks are those that come from changing jobs and risks emanating from the financial market. Both worker characteristics and types of risks borne by employees are contributory factors to differences in the expected value of benefits derived from defined benefit and accumulation plans. Worker characteristics include age at initial employment, years of service, salary levels during employment and at retirement, and longevity post-retirement. The major risks that lead to differences in the expected values of defined benefit and accumulation plans are those associated with changing jobs and financial market risks. Financial market risk is the second major risk and the most relevant to our study. In accumulation plans members directly bear financial market risk, whereas members of defined benefit plans are only indirectly exposed to such risk. In accumulation plans that offer choice of investment strategy, it is essential that members have a certain level of financial literacy to evaluate and monitor performance of the alternatives. In choosing an investment option, members are f aced with the tasks of examining, comprehending, and evaluating an array of financial information to assess the relative merits of the differing superannuation plan options. This process includes considering the nature of the investment strategy for each option, allocation of assets within each option, and assessing the relative risks and returns of each option to determine which one best matches the members risk-return preferences. Superannuation fund members who are more comfortable with making such significant investment decisions and are more willing to accept the associated financial risks are more likely to choose an accumulation plan over a defined benefit plan The statement is false because there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First, the efficient market hypothesis does not mean that the selection of the portfolio is carried out using a pin. There are still three issues that the manager needs to address. Top on that list that the manager needs to ensure that the portfolio has been diversified satisfactorily(Chew, 2008). The logic behind this is simple. A huge number of stocks is simply not enough to secure diversification. Hence, the resulting portfolio may not be well diversified if large stocks are taken as the measure for diversification. The result is that this may leave the fund with a unique risk that will not be recognized or rewarded. The manager should thus make sure that the portfolio is diversified well because the large number of stocks could all be in similar industries, a factor that does not represent many returns(Brealey Meyers, 2010). Hurling pins at the stock page may create diversification of the p ortfolio but the expected return or risk from the resultant portfolio cannot be controlled. Second, the resulting portfolio may bear excessive amounts of systematic risk for the individuals(Quiry, Fur, Salvi, Dallocchio, Vernimmen, 2011). With additional wealth it may not be too big a concern for these individuals to invest in an asset without any risks. However, if there is no additional wealth, the portfolio presents a very high beta with respect to the individuals preferences of risk. The pension fund manager will need to ensure that the risks associated with the diversified portfolio augers well with the clients. For the pension fund, the manager should select the portfolio that represents a safe investment for the client, which in this case refers to the stocks or bonds or a combined portfolio that have a lower beta(Princen, 2013). It is also prudent to consider the presence of taxes in this imperfect world. An investors tax position is very critical in a matter such as this one. Some specific assets have the tendency to generate surpluses due to their high taxability nature emanating from the equilibrating process(Princen, 2013). For investors in the lower bracket, the after-tax returns on the assets is manageable and favorable. Therefore, the manager should take the status of the tax into account in this case. Thus, the pension fund manager should tailor the portfolio in a manner that takes advantage of the special tax legislature governing pension funds(Brealey Meyers, 2010). Such legal provisions make it possible to increase the returns expected from the portfolio without incurring extra risk on the venture. References Bodie, Z., Shoven, J. B., Wise, D. A. (1988). Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Trade-offs? In Pensions in the U.S. Economy (pp. 139-162). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Bolton, B. (2015). Sustainable financial management investments: Maximizing corporate profits and long-term economic value creation. New York: Palgrave, Macmillan. Brealey, R. A., Meyers, S. C. (2010). Principles of corporate finance. New York, NY: McGraw Hill. Brown, K., Gallery, G., Gallery, N. (2002). Informed superannuation choice: constraints and policy resolutions. Economic Analysis Policy, 32(1), 71-90. Chew, D. H. (2008). Corporate Risk Management. New York: Columbia University Press. Dulebohn, J., Murray, B., Sun, M. (2000). Selection among employer-sponsored pension plans: The role of individual differences. Personnel Psychology, 53, 405-432. Dunphy, D. C., Benn, S., Griffiths, A. (2014). Organizational change for corporate sustainability. Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge. Princen, S. (2013). Determining the impact of taxation on corporate financial decision-making. Reflets perpectives de la vie economique, 161-170. Quiry, P., Fur, Y. L., Salvi, A., Dallocchio, M., Vernimmen, P. (2011). Corporate finance: Theory and Practice. New York, NY: John Wiley Sons Inc.

USC 2017-2018 Supplemental Essay Prompts Short Answer Questions

Want to be a USC Trojan? Bookmark this page to help plan your application essays for the University of Southern California! USC is one of the most popular colleges on the west coast. Located in Southern California, USC attracts a lot of students who enjoy nice, sunny weather all year round. Especially in a city like Los Angeles that offers students endless of cultural activities and internship opportunities they can take advantage of. On top of USC’s ideal location and weather, USC is well known for their undergraduate business and media studies. USC Marshall School of Business is ranked no. 9 for their undergraduate business program, specifically strong in accounting and entrepreneurship. USC Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism is also a popular choice for students interested in media studies, especially when paired with media internships available in an entertainment-focused city like LA. USC also has a very unique program called the Jimmy Iovine and Andre Young Academy (IYA). Students accepted to the program will be studying Arts, Technology and Business Innovation. Over the 4 years, IYA students will gain an in-depth knowledge in art and design, engineering and computer science, and finally, business and venture management. The application requires an additional portfolio and is highly selective. On average, only 25 students are accepted per graduating class. Does USC offer what you’re interested? If you are applying this fall, here are the short answer questions and supplemental essays for the 2017-2018 application season: 1. Short Answer Questions Describe yourself in three wordsWhat is your favorite snack?Favorite app/websiteBest movie of all timeHashtag to describe yourselfDream job:What is your theme song?Dream tripWhat TV show will you binge watch next?Place you are most content?TIP: These short answer questions are meant to help the admissions office know a little bit more about you and your personality. Dont spend too much time on these questions, and be true to who you are! 2. Supplemental Essay #1 Please respond to one of the prompts below. (250 word limit) Prompt 1: USC believes that one learns best when interacting with people of different backgrounds, experiences and perspectives. Tell us about a time you were exposed to a new idea or when your beliefs were challenged by another point of view. Prompt 2:Describe something outside of your intended academic focus about which you are interested in learning. Prompt 3: What is something about yourself that is essential to understanding you? TIP: When you choose which essay prompt to write, take into account what essay topic youve chosen for your personal statement and what you plan on writing for the second supplemental essay. The admissions office will be reading your application as a whole, so it should all come together to tell them who you are, what youre interested and what USC can offer you to achieve your dreams. 3. Supplemental Essay #2 Describe how you plan to pursue your academic interests at USC. Please feel free to address your first- and second-choice major selections. (250 word limit) TIP: This is essentially your Why USC supplemental essay. Do your research about the program you want to apply. In fact, reach out to the professors in the department youre interested in studying and learn more about the program. Its important to know what USC offers, so you can talk about how those resources and facilities can enable you to achieve your interests or support your studies in a specific field. Do not just iterate what programs they have. This essay is about how USC can help you in a way no other universities can, and about how you can give back to the universitys community by being a part of it.Ourpremium plansoffer different level of profile access and data insights that can help you get into your dream school. Unlock any of ourpackagesor search ourundergraduate profile databaseto find specific profiles that can help you make an informed choice about where to apply!

Analysis of Patrick Henry essays

Analysis of Patrick Henry essays In the speech, "The Virginia Convention," Patrick Henry set out to convince the Virginia delegates that the war with England was inevitable and the longer they waited the harder the war would be to win. Patrick Henry uses the art of persuasion to win over his audience. In the essay, The Crisis, No. 1, Thomas Paine set out to persuade the people of each colony should stand up and fight for their freedom. He set out to convince the colonists that the tyrant England had binded the colonies in her grasp and transformed the colonists into slaves. In the, Notes on the State of Virginia, Thomas Jefferson sets out to convince the State of Virginia that whites are the superior race and that all African Americans that have been emancipated should be exported to another country. All of the authors institute effective use of the range of appeals, logos, ethos, and pathos giving the speech a quality of concrete mental and physical wholeness. The logos contribution of Henry's address makes use of solid facts to convince the people of Virginia that fighting or slavery are the only possible outcomes of their meeting. He uses this as a fear factor to persuade the people that fighting is the only way to maintain their freedom. These logical facts are used mainly in the third and fourth paragraphs and he also ends his assertions with questions. "Are fleets and armies necessary to work a love and reconciliation?" asks Henry of his audience. This arrangement of writing, a question, serves not only to state the obvious motive that the "fleets and armies" are not on American soil to promote peace, but to suppress the colonies and this shows the Convention a justification in their actions to fight not flight. Another purpose is achieved in the second part of the question to appeal to ethos, "love and reconciliation". This shows that while America is working for love and reconciliation, England is sending fleets and armies. The c ...

Flash Cards Spelling Game Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Flash Cards Spelling Game - Coursework Example Flash Cards spelling game The game is played by giving each student a flash card. Each student should read out the word in his/her flash card and pick a volunteer to spell the word. The student who spells the word correctly becomes the next person to present. The game continues and only stops when all students have presented their words and correct spellings are done on each word. The teacher should first arrange the students to sit in a circle. Second, the teacher will issue each student with a unique flash card, which should not be shared with the neighbor. Third, the teacher should explain the game to the student and make sure that they understand the game. To start the game, the teacher will pick one flash card with a word â€Å"cupboard,† read the word aloud, and invite volunteers to spell the word. The picked student is supposed to spell the word without making any mistake within 10 seconds. If the picked student makes a mistake, another student among the volunteers will be picked until the word is spelled correctly. The student who gets the spelling right becomes the next one to present their word. The next student reads out the word in his/her flash card and invites volunteers to spell the word. The student with the correct spelling becomes the next one to present. ... Each team has equal opportunities to spell the words apart from when one team fails and the word has to be spelled by the other team. Each team has 10 seconds to spell the word which when it lapses, the next team gets the opportunity to spell the word. Each correct spelling earns the team 5 points where the team with the highest points wins the game. The teacher will first divide the class into team A and team B to contest on the spelling of 14 words he/she will instruct. The words are children, parents, compound, car, kitten, puppies, carpet, television, bedroom, grandfather, grandmother, home, brother, and sister. Second, the teacher should give instructions on how the game is played by use of an example of a word like â€Å"uncle.† The teacher reads out a word and chooses a team to spell the word in 10 seconds. If the team fails, the second team gets the opportunity to spell the same word which becomes a plus for the team if they get the spelling right. Each team gets seven opportunities to spell a word, meaning the teacher will pick the teams in an alternating manner. The teacher starts the game by asking team A to spell the word â€Å"children.† If the team A spells the word correctly, the teacher reads the second one and asks team B to spell. The game continues and only stops when all words have been spelled correctly. The team with the highest scores becomes the winner of the game. To address sentence structure mistake, â€Å"Cut-up sentence Kabadi† and â€Å"Add a word† games will be used. In both activities, students will get a chance to interact with sentences while making corrections on them where necessary. Cut-up sentence Kabadi The game is played by having two teams

Analysing .... Internet Marketing Strategy Essay

Analysing .... Internet Marketing Strategy - Essay Example It is therefore important that the companies come up with clear strategies for them to succeed their Internet marketing. Backcountry came to this realization and developed a number of strategies that saw them succeed greatly. The success of Internet marketing highly depends on various factors including developing good business plans, having simple websites, involvement of customers in the design of the website, choosing suitable technology and using Internet marketing tools. Moreover, the Internet marketer must establish correct relationships, adopt end-to-end solutions, acknowledge legal responsibilities, properly utilize customer data and incorporate the Internet channel. Retailers who go Internet are set to reap greatly from it, owing to its global market and efficient management information systems. However, they must also take the necessary measures to avoid the negative effects of the technology such as privacy concerns and security issues. These challenges not withstanding, In ternet retailing seems to be the future trend and the sector must fully embrace it. For greater success in the future, and in view of the rapidly changing technological world, Backcountry needs to adopt various new strategies to retain or improve its market niche. Internet marketing refers to the process enabling consumers to buy goods and services through the Internet. The retailers of these goods and services are referred to as a virtual store, Internet store, web-store, web-shop, internet shop, and e-store or Internet shop. There are various types of Internet marketing sites, depending on the nature of the organization. They include Business to Consumer-B2C, BusinesstoBusiness-B2B, and Business to Employee-B2E, Government to Consumer or Citizen-G2C and Consumer to Consumer-C2C. The most common forms of internet marketing are business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) transactions. This form of shopping has penetrated many aspects

Judgemental Forecasting Method

Judgemental Forecasting Method Forecasting is a significant tool for many different sectors as it makes predictions on the future by looking at historical data, present data and the analysing of trends. However, some business forecasting is not done at a good level, as some business people confuse it with goals and planning. Forecasting, Goals and Planning, these three differ significantly, Forecasting is trying to calculate the future a specific as possible, by using historical data, present data and the analysing of trend, Goals for business is that the business would like to happen for them in the near future. Goals are usually done with lacking any planning or forecasting, as the business looks at their competitors and they either want to match them or exceed them in the market. Planning is looking at the forecasting and goals and deciding the best action that will make the business forecasting match their goals. As the business world is moving more into analysing data, forecasting is and will be a vital part of decision-making for the management team, as the forecasting can help with short term, medium term and long term forecasting. When a business has a lack of past data or the business is launching a new product, the business can still use forecasting, and they will use Judgement forecasting. Judgement forecasting is the use of opinion, intuitive judgment and subjective probability estimates. Judgment forecasting has few methods that can be used to get the best statistical analysis and there are Statistical surveys, Scenario building, Delphi methods, Technology forecasting and forecast by analogy. The Judgement forecasting has increasingly been recognised as a science, and over the years the quality of Judgement forecasting has been improving as the approach has been well structured and efficient. But it is important to understand that Judgement forecasting has not been perfected as it still has limitations. Judgment forecast depend on human cognition which has limitations, For example, a limited memory may render recent events more important than they actually are and may ignore momentous events from the more distant past; or a limited attention span may result in important information being missed, or a misunderstanding of causal relationships may lead to erroneous inference.1 This example shows that human memory can affect the judgment forecast in a negative way, and misunderstanding can lead to wishful thinking or optimistic view which can lead to faulty forecast, and in the case of launching a new product, the marketing and salesman teams will have an optimistic view for their lunch so they will not forecast its failure Beware of the enthusiasm of your marketing and sales colleagues2. In the case of judgment forecasting without any domain knowledge and only a set of time series data is used, getting a forecast will be very hard, as in the Hogath and makridais (1981) in their paper, where they have examined around 175 papers where there was judgment forecasting, they have approached a result of that quantitative models outperform judgmental forecasts3, in their research they have seen that judgment has been linked with systematic biases and errors, as some people were looking for patterns and linking together clues where there was none as the process was random. Judgment forecasting has been compared to many different kinds of forecasting such as statistical methods, and many different types of research conclude different findings of the accuracy of the two methods. In the paper of Lawrence (1985) and (1986) where the paper compares the accuracy of quantities model and judgment forecasting, the paper has come to a conclusion that demonstrated judgmental forecasting to be at least as accurate as statistical techniques4, also in the paper show that the standard deviation of the error of the statistical method was greater than the judgment forecast error. The paper also shows that if judgment forecasting was added in the statistical method, better sets of forecasting can be predicted and the level of error would decrease. In the study by Makridakis S and Winkler R (1983) it shows that there are few ways to combine the judgement and statistical forecasting. In the study it says that there is two way to join the two forecasting methods, the first is Concurrent Incorporation where to get the final forecasting both methods will have to be used to get the averaging procedure. The second way is a Posterior Incorporation which includes the judgmental revision of statistically derived forecasts5   this second way tries to improve forecasting by allowing the judgement forecasting to see and access the results of the statistical forecasting. After many years of research in the area of forecasting, Judgment forecasting improves when greater domain knowledge and more up to date information included, therefore by using this new information, judgment approach can then be adjusted and producing an improved forecast. By using a well structured and systematic approach, it helps to decrease the undesirable effects of the limitations of the forecast. By well structuring the approach it will make the forecasting task clear, and a good understanding of the structure is important to avoid unclear and uncertain terms. The method that is well structured that can be used for the judgment forecasting is the Delphi methods. The Delphi method is the use of experts opinions and judgment in the specific field to predict the expectation in that field. The Delphi method is respect method as it only looks at the opinions of the experts in their field and allows them to be anonymous at all time, therefore there is not influenced by their social and political pressure in their prediction, and all experts opinions are weighted equally so no one prediction is superior to another. But like any other approach, the Delphi method also has its limitations, the method is time-consuming, therefore, the experts might be discouraged to join the study or they will not contribute fully at all time of the approach. Adding domain knowledge to the judgement forecasting can be used fully for the prediction. The knowledge of the time series and further information which explains the historical performance of the series can have a minor influence on the forecast or a huge impact on the variable of the data. The domain knowledge represents the un-modelled module of the series. The un-modelled module is very important as it can be included into the statistical forecast to reach better results for the forecast. Many studies have been looking at judgement forecasting with the addition of domain knowledge, a study by Brown (1996) which looked at earning per share forecasting. The study shows that the forecasting of the management team was more accurate than the analysts predictions and the statistical model forecasting. In the study, it shows that the inside information which is the domain knowledge of the firm lead to the accuracy of the management team forecast. In the study, it showed that it did not matter if the statistical model was complex or simple as the management team and analysts got a higher accuracy level because of the domain knowledge the management team holds. In a study by Sanders (1992) where it compared the preference of judgement methods to statistical forecasting, the study compared both methods by the use of an artificial time series. The study looked at 38 business students, the students were thought some different ways of statistical and judgement forecasting and every student had two-time series and past data. The task for the students was to use all the information they had to forecast the next 12 steps ahead. The students were given one week to produce their judgement forecasting, then they were given statistical forecasting of the series, and then they were asked to review their forecast and do any adjustment if needed. The study has used the mean absolute percentage error to assess the forecasting results, and the mean percentage error was applied to calculate the level of bias in the forecast. The results of the study have similar results as the past studies did, as statistical methods outperformed judgment forecasting in all -time series but not the low noise step function. And the more complex the data pattern got the worse the judgement forecast became. The study clearly shows that the statistical methods had better forecasting in the high noise level data, and an increase in noise level has worsened off the judgement forecasting, the study says this is due because as the high noise increases it becomes harder for an individual to detect any kind of patterns. While judgement forecasting didnt perform well during a high noise, it did significantly well in the low noise function. Looking at the bias in the study, it shows that at a low noise series the judgement revision bias is low in the series, while for a high noise series it increases the bias in the series. The main point of the study by Sanders (1992) is that judgement amendments with statistical methods can have great advantage for a low noise series with a specific data patterns, and it will do better when statistical method are applied blindly to a time series, also at a low noise series the judgement revision bias is low in the series, but in a high noise series the judgment forecasting is not the right approach comparing to a statistical forecasting and in some instances the bias level in the judgement forecasting was greater than the statistical forecasting in a high noise series. Sanders approach of the judgement forecasting is not overwhelm approved in the forecasting filed, as it has many critics wondering about its efficiency, as the sanders approach for judgment forecasting does not use the experts opinions on the field that is going to be forecasted but uses the opinion and judgment of normal people who may have not have studied the field and have a small knowledge about it, therefore, there judgement would not be the best to use to create a prediction from it. Judgemental forecasting is an important tool in the business today but it has to be used right, as some business people confuse it with goals and planning. When doing a judgmental forecasting the aims and the purpose of the forecasting have to be clear and well structured to get better results. But like any forecasting method, Judgemental forecasting has its limitations and it is up to the person who is performing the forecast to make sure they are at a minimum. To get a better prediction it is important to try and increase the domain knowledge of the series as it has been shown in the Brown (1996) study, as the management team outperformed the statistical analysis due to the inside information of the firm and because they are the experts in that field. Also to improve the judgement forecasting as it has been shown in the Sanders (1992) have found if judgment forecasting is done with a revision of statistical methods, the forecast can be more accurate in a low noise series and with a less level of bias. Judgmental forecasting is not a perfect method to predict the outcome of a specific time series but it is a good point to start. References: Rob J Hyndman, (2013) Chapter: Judgmental Forecasts: Beware of limitations. Book: Forecasting: principles and practice R. Fildes and P. Goodwin (2007b). Good and bad judgment in forecasting: lessons from four companies. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 8, 5-10. Hogarth Makridakis, 1981 R.M. Hogarth, S. Makridakis Forecasting and planning: An evaluation Management Science, 27 (1981), pp. 115-138 Lawrence et al., 1986M. Lawrence, R. Edmundson, M. OConnor The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts, Management Science, 32 (1986), pp. 1521-1532 Makridakis S and Winkler R (1983) Averages of forecasts: Some empirical results. Mgmt Sci. 29, 987-996 Sanders, 1992  N.R. Sanders  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison   Omega, 20 (3) (1992), p. 353 Brown, 1996 L. Brown Analyst forecasting errors and their implications for security analysts: An alternative perspective Financial Analysts Journal, 52 (1) (1996), pp. 40-47 Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., OConnor, M., ÃÆ'-nkal, D. (2006). Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 493-518.

Night World : Black Dawn Chapter 15

Maggie shuffled behind Chamber-pot Emptier,heading back toward the castle. She was carryingpiles of folded linen sheets given to her by Laun dress, and she was doing her best to look like a slave. Laundress had smudged her face artisticallywith dirt to disguise her. She had also sifted ahandful of dust into Maggie's hair to dull the auburn into a lifeless brown, and when Maggie bowedher head over the sheets, the hair further obscuredher features. The only problem was that she wasconstantly afraid she was going to sneeze. â€Å"Those are the wild animals,† Chamber-pot Emptier whispered over her shoulder. She was a bigboned girl with gentle eyes that reminded Maggieof the calves tethered by Laundress's hut. It had taken Laundress a while to make her understandwhat they wanted of her, but now she seemed tofeel obligated to give Maggie a tour. â€Å"They're brought in from Outside,† she said. â€Å"And they're dangerous. Maggie looked sideways at the wicker cageswhere Sylvia and Gavin had walked earlier. Fromone a brown-gray wolf stared back at her with afrighteningly sad and steady gaze. In another a sleek black panther was pacing, and it snarled asthey went by. There was something curled up inthe back of a third that might have been a tigerit was big, and it had stripes. â€Å"Wow,† she said. â€Å"I wouldn't want to chase that.† Chamber-pot Emptier seemed pleased. â€Å"Andhere's the castle. It's called Black Dawn.† â€Å"It is?† Maggie said, distracted away from theanimals. â€Å"That's what my grandpa called it, anyway. Helived and died in the courtyard without ever goingin.† Chamber-pot Emptier thought a moment andadded, â€Å"The old people say that you used to be ableto see the sun in the sky-not just behind theclouds, you know. And when the sun came up inthe morning it shone on the castle. But maybethat's just a story.† Yeah, maybe it was just a story that you couldsee the sun in the sky, Maggie thought grimly.Every time she thought this place couldn't surpriseher anymore, she discovered she was wrong. But the castle itself was impressive †¦ awe inspiring. It was the only thing in view that wasn't dusty brown or pallid gray. Its walls were shinyand black, almost mirror-like in places, and Maggie didn't have to be told that it wasn't built of anyordinary human stone. How they had gotten it tothis valley was a mystery. Delos lives here, she thoughtasEmptier led herup a stone staircase, past the ground floor which was just cellars and storage rooms. In this beautiful, frightening, impressive place. Not only lives init, but commands it. It's all his. She got just a glimpse of the great hall, whereshe'd seen slaves setting a long table yesterday. Chamber-pot Emptier led her up another floor andinto a series of winding corridors that seemed to go on for miles. It was dim in this internal labyrinth. The windows were high and narrow and hardly let any ofthe pale daylight in. On the walls there were candles in brackets and flares in iron rings, but theyonly seemed to add wavering, confusing shadowsto the twilight. â€Å"His bedroom's up here,† Emptier murmured finally. Maggie followed her closely. She was justthinking that they had made it all the way withouteven being challenged, when a voice sounded from a side corridor. â€Å"Where are you going? Who's this?† It was a guard, Maggie saw, peering from underher hair. A real medieval guard, with, of all things,a lance. There was another one in the opposite cor ridor just like him. She was fascinated in the middle of her terror. But Chamber-pot Emptier of the not-so-quickwits reacted beautifully. She took time to curtsey, then she said slowly and stolidly, â€Å"It's Folder fromthe laundry, sir. Laundress sent her with the sheetsand I was told she could help me. There's morework because of the guests, you know.† â€Å"It's Chamber Maid's work to spread sheets,† theguard said irritably. Chamber-pot Emptier curtsied again and said just as slowly, â€Å"Yes, sir, but there's more work because of the guests, you see-â€Å" â€Å"Fine, fine,† the guard broke in impatiently. â€Å"Whydon't you go and do it, instead of talking about it?†He seemed to think that was funny, and he turned and elbowed the other guard in the ribs. Chamber-pot Emptier curtseyed a third time and walked on, not hurrying. Maggie tried to copy the curtsey, with her face buried in the sheets. There was another endless corridor, then a doorway, and then Emptier said, â€Å"We're here. Andthere's nobody.around.† Maggie lifted her face from the sheets. â€Å"You're absolutely wonderful, you know that? You deservean Academy Award.† â€Å"A what?† â€Å"Never mind. But you were great.† â€Å"I only told the truth,† the girl said placidly, butthere was a smile lurking in the depths of her gentle cowlike eyes. â€Å"There is more work when guestscome. We never had them before three years ago.† Maggie nodded. â€Å"I know. Look, I guess you'd better go now. And um-Emptier?† She couldn't bring herself to say the entire name. â€Å"I really hope you don't get in trouble because of this.† Chamber-pot Emptier nodded back, then went toreach under the bed and retrieve a ceramic container. She walked out again holding it carefully. Maggie looked around the room, which was verybig and very bare. It was somewhat better lit thanthe corridors, having several bowl-shaped oil lampson stands. The bed was the only real piece of furniture in it. It was huge, with a heavy wooden frameand carved bedposts. Piled on top of it were quiltsand what looked like fur coverlets, and hanging allaround it were linen curtains. I'm probably supposed to take all that stuff off and put the clean sheets on, Maggie thought. Shedidn't. The rest of the furniture seemed to be largechests made of exotic-looking wood, and a fewbenches and stools. Nothing that offered a hidingplace. But on one side there was a curtaineddoorway. Maggie went through it and found a small anteroom-the wardrobe Jeanne had mentioned. It wasmuch bigger than she'd expected, and seemed tobe more of a storeroom than a closet. Okay. So I'll just sit down. There were two stools beside a figure thatvaguely resembled a dressmaker's dummy. Maggie dropped her sheets on a chest and pulled one ofthe stools close to the doorway. Through the spacebetween the linen curtains she could see almost theentire bedchamber. Perfect, she thought. All I have to do is wait untilhe comes in alone. And then She stiffened. She could hear voices from somewhere beyond the vast bedroom. No, she couldhear a voice, a musical girlish voice. Oh, please, she thought. Not her.Don't let him come in with her. I'll have to jump out and hit herwith something; I won't be able to stop myself†¦ . But when two figures came in the room, she hadno desire to jump out. It was Sylvia, all right, but she wasn't with Delos.She was with Hunter Redfern. Maggie felt ice down her spine. Now, what werethese two doing in Delos's bedroom? Whatever itwas, if they caught her, she was dead meat. Sheheld herself absolutely still, but she couldn't tear herself away from the curtain. â€Å"He's out riding, and he won't be back for another half hour,† Sylvia was saying. She was wearing a dark holly-green gown and carrying a basket.†And I've sent all the servants away.† â€Å"Even so,† Hunter Redfern said. He gently movedthe heavy wooden door until it was almost shut.Not all the way, but enough to screen the bedchamber from anyone outside. â€Å"You really think he's spying on our rooms?† Sylvia turned in a swirl of skirts to look at the tallman. â€Å"He's brightmuch smarter than you give himcredit for. And these old castles have spy-holes and listening tubes built in; I remember. It's a stupidprince who doesn't make use of them.† He remembers, Maggie thought, for a moment too full of wonder to be scared. He remembers thedays when castles were built, he means. He's reallybeen alive that long. She studied the handsome face under the bloodred hair, the aristocratic cheekbones, the mobile mouth-and the quick flashing eyes. This was thesort of man who could fascinate people, she decided. Like Delos, there was a sort of leashed tension about him, a reserve of power and intelligence that made an ordinary person feel awed. He was a leader, a commander. And a hunter, Maggie thought. All these peopleare hunters, but he's the Hunter, the epitome ofwhat they are. His name says it all. But Sylvia was talking again. â€Å"What is it that he'snot supposed to know?† â€Å"I've had a message from Outside. Don't ask how,I have my ways.† â€Å"You have your little bats,† Sylvia said demurely.†I've seen them.† There was a pause, then Hunter said, â€Å"You'd better watch yourself, girl. That mouth's going to getyou in trouble.† Sylvia had her face turned away from him, butMaggie saw her swallow. â€Å"I'm sorry. I didn't knowit was a secret. But what's happened?† â€Å"The biggest news in your short life.† Hunter Redfern laughed once and added with apparentgood humor restored, â€Å"And maybe in mine. Thewitches have seceded from the Night World.† Maggie blinked. It sounded impressive the wayhe said itbut more impressive was the way Sylviafroze and then whirled breathlessly. â€Å"What?† â€Å"It's happened. They've been threatening for amonth, but most people didn't believe they'd reallydo it.† Sylvia put a hand to her middle, pressed flatagainst her stomach as if to hold something in.Then she sat on the fur-covered bed. â€Å"They've left the Council,† she said. She wasn'tlooking at Hunter Redfern. â€Å"They've left the Council and everything else.†Ã¢â‚¬ All of them?† Hunter Redfern's fine red eyebrows went up. â€Å"What did you expect? Oh, a few of the blackestpractitioners from Circle Midnight are arguing, butmost of them agree with the liberals in Circle Twilight. They want to save the humans. Avert thecoming darkness.† He said it exactly the way Maggie had heard lumberjacks say, â€Å"Save the spotted owls. Ha!† â€Å"So it's really beginning,† Sylvia murmured. Shewas still looking at the stone floor. â€Å"I mean, there'sno going back, now, is there? The Night World issplit forever.† â€Å"And the millennium is upon us,† Hunter said,almost cheerfully. He looked young and†¦personable, Maggie thought. Somebody you'd vote for. â€Å"Which brings me to the question,† he said smoothly, looking at Sylvia, â€Å"of when you're goingto find her.† What her? Maggie's stomach tightened. Sylvia's face was equally tight. She looked up and said levelly, â€Å"I told you I'd find her and I will.†Ã¢â‚¬ But when?You do understand how important this is?† â€Å"Of course I understand!† Sylvia flared up. Herchest was heaving. â€Å"That's why I was trying to sendher to you in the first place-â€Å" Hunter was talkingasif he didn't hear her. â€Å"If it gets out that Aradia, the Maiden of all the witches,is here in the valley-‘ Iliknow!† â€Å"And that you hadher and let her slip throughyour fingers-â€Å" â€Å"I was trying to bring her to you.I thought thatwas important,† Sylvia said. She was bristling and distraught. Which was exactly what Hunter wantedher to be, Maggie thought dazedly. He really knows how to play people. But the analysis was faraway, in the shallowestpart of her mind. Most of her consciousness wassimply stricken into paralyzed amazement. Aradia. The Maiden of all the witches. So it wasn't Arcadia at all, Maggie thought. She might have mentioned that,after I've been calling her Cady for days. But then she hasn't been conscious much, and when she was we had more urgent things to talk about. Aradia. Aradia. That's really pretty. The name had started an odd resonance in hermind, maybe bringing up some long-forgotten mythology lesson. Aradia was a goddess, she thought.Of†¦ um, sylvan glades or something. The woods.Like Diana. And what Maiden of all the witches was, she hadno idea, but it was obviously something important.And not evil, either. From what Hunter was saying, it was clear that witches weren't like other NightPeople. She was the maiden Bern and Gavin were talkingabout, Maggie realized. The one they were supposed to deliver. So Sylvia was bringing her toHunter Redfern. But Cady herself told me-I mean, Aradiatold me-that she was already coming tothis valley for a reason. Before she could even properly phrase the question, her mind had the answer. Delos. In a coincidence that lifted the hair on Maggie'sarms, Sylvia said, â€Å"She won't get to Delos.† â€Å"She'd better not,† Hunter said. â€Å"Maybe you don't realize how persuasive she can be. An ambassador from all the witches, coming to plead her case †¦ she just might sway him. He has a despicable softspot-a conscience, you might call it. And we know he's been in contact with the human girl who escaped with her. Who knows what messages the little vermin was carrying from her?† No messages, Maggie thought grimly. Not withthis vermin anyway. But I would have carried themif I'd known. â€Å"Gavin said Aradia was still unconscious fromthe truth potion-that she was practically dead,†Sylvia said. â€Å"I don t think she could have given any messages. I'd swear that Delos doesn't know she'sin the valley at all.† Hunter was still brooding. â€Å"The witches have oneWild Power on their side already.† â€Å"But they won't get another,† Sylvia said doggedly. â€Å"I've got people looking for her. All the nobles are on our side. They won't let her get toDelos.† â€Å"She should have been killed in the beginning,†Hunter mused. â€Å"But maybe youhave a soft spotfor herlike you do for that human boy.† Behind the linen curtains, Maggie stiffened. Like you do.Not like you did.And who else couldthe human boy be? She gritted her teeth, listening so hard she couldhear the blood in her ears, willing them to talkabout Miles. But Hunter was going on in his smooth voice,†Or maybe you still have some loyalty to thewitches.† Sylvia's pale face flushed. â€Å"I do not! I'm finishedwith them, and you know it! I may be a spellcaster, but I'm not a witch anymore.† â€Å"It's good to see you haven't forgotten whatthey've done to you,† Hunter said. â€Å"After all, youcould have been a Hearth-Woman, taken yourrightful place on the witch Council.† â€Å"Yes†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Like your grandmother and her mother beforeher. Theywere Harmans, and so was your father.What a pity the name isn't passed through the maleline. You ended up being just a Weald.† â€Å"I wasa Harman,† Sylvia said with muted ferocity. She was staring at the floor again, and sheseemed to be speaking to herself rather than toHunter. â€Å"I was. But I had to stand there and watch my cousins be accepted instead of me. I had towatch half humansbe accepted-be welcomed.They took my place-just because they were descended through the female line.† Hunter shook his head. â€Å"A very sad tradition.† Sylvia's breath came raggedly for another minuteor so, then she looked up slowly at the tall man in the center of the room, â€Å"You don't have to worryabout my loyalty,† she said quietly. â€Å"I want a placein the new order after the millennium. I'm through with the witches.† Hunter smiled. â€Å"I know it,† he said, lightly and approvingly, andthen he started pacing the room. He got what hewanted out of her, Maggie thought. Almost casually, he added, â€Å"Just be sure thatDelos's power is kept in check until everything's decided.† Sylvia bent and lifted the basket, which Maggiehad forgotten about. â€Å"The new binding spells will hold,† she said. â€Å"Ibrought special ingredients from one of the oldestMidnight witches. And he won't suspect anything.† â€Å"And nobody but you can take them off?† â€Å"Nobody but me,† Sylvia said firmly. â€Å"Not eventhe Crone of all the witches. Or the Maiden, forthat matter.† â€Å"Good girl,† Hunter said, and smiled again. â€Å"Ihave every confidence in you. After all, you havelamia blood in you to balance the witch taint.You're my own eighth-great-granddaughter.† Maggie wanted to punch him. She was confused and frightened and indignantand furious, all at once. As faras she could tell,Hunter Redfern seemed to be manipulating everybody. And Delos, Delos the prince and Wild Power,was just another of his puppets. I wonder what they plan to do if he won't join their new order? she thought bleakly. After a few minutes, Hunter turned in his pacingand walked by the door. He paused brieflyasiflistening, then glanced at Sylvia. â€Å"You don't know how happy it makes me just to think about it,† he said, in a voice that wasn't strained, or overly cheerful, or too loud, or anything that rang false. â€Å"To finally have a true heir.A male heir of my own line, and untainted by witchblood. I would never have married that witchMaeve Harman if I had known my son was still alive. And not only alive, but out having sons! Theonly true Redferns left in the world, you mightsay. Maggie, with her teeth set in her lower lip, didn'tneed to guess who was on the other side of thedoor. She watched tensely. And Delos came in, right on cue.